State of play in new NDCs: Scientific insights, social justice and development implications

As countries submit their third Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs 3.0) in 2025, this session examines the evolving landscape of climate commitments under the Paris Agreement. The panel will bring together experts to discuss the latest scientific and policy insights on how to keep global warming within 1.5°C while advancing progress on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

The session will begin by presenting the latest scientific assessments of NDCs, highlighting the gap between current pledges and the pathways required to limit global warming to 1.5°C. Specifically, it will examine scenario analyses that show the world is likely headed toward overshooting 1.5°C in the early 2030s. The discussion will explore strategies for limiting both the magnitude and duration of overshoot.

The speakers will then present the Climate Action Tracker’s analysis of the latest 2035 NDCs submitted by governments, reviewing how these new commitments compare with 1.5°C consistent trajectories. This analysis will highlight where ambition remains insufficient and discuss the implications for global climate action.

Finally, the session will explore the links between NDCs and the SDGs, focusing on how strengthened climate commitments can also advance social equity, human rights, and capacity-building objectives.